Heart disease and stroke could affect at least 60% of adults in U.S. by 2050
By American Heart Association 线上电子游戏飞禽走兽
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At least 6 in 10 adults in an older, more diverse U.S. 在未来30年内,人口可能会受到心血管疾病的影响, according to two new science reports.
预计心脏病和中风的发病率会上升,同时还有几个关键的风险因素, 包括高血压和肥胖在内,相关费用可能会增加两倍,达到1美元.到2050年将达到8万亿美元, 根据周二发表在美国心脏协会期刊《线上电子游戏飞禽走兽》上的两份美国心脏协会主席咨询报告. 一份报告着眼于 projected increase in cardiovascular disease rates in the decades ahead, while 另一个 projects their total related costs.
"The landscape of cardiovascular disease in the U.S. is seeing the arrival of a near-perfect storm," Dr. Dhruv年代. Kazi, vice chair of the advisory writing group, said in a 线上电子游戏飞禽走兽发布会上. Kazi是卫生经济学的负责人,也是Richard A. 苏珊·F. 史密斯心脏病学结果研究中心主任,波士顿贝斯以色列女执事医疗中心心脏重症监护病房主任.
“过去十年,心血管风险因素激增,如未控制的高血压, 糖尿病和肥胖, each of which raises the risks of developing heart disease and stroke,他说. “心血管风险因素和疾病的大量增加将产生巨大的经济负担,这并不奇怪."
心血管疾病是指冠心病等疾病, including heart attacks; heart failure, which is when the heart doesn't pump as well as it should; heart arrhythmias, including a type of irregular heart rhythm called atrial fibrillation; vascular disease, which affects the veins and arteries; congenital heart defects; stroke; and high blood pressure.
Because high blood pressure, also known as hypertension, contributes to nearly all types of heart disease and stroke, researchers made separate predictions for this condition. 根据他们的预测,从2020年到2050年,高血压的发病率预计将从51上升.2%到61%的美国.S. 人口.
Excluding people with high blood pressure, 研究人员预测,到2050年,15%的人口将患上心血管疾病, 从11起.3% in 2020. This includes a doubling of stroke rates.
Obesity rates are expected to climb from 43.1% to 60.6%的人口, 由于不健康的饮食,20至64岁的成年人预计会看到增长最快.
The diabetes rate is expected to rise from 16.3% to 26.8%的人口.
Risk factors are rising even among children and young adults.
到2050年,肥胖预计将影响三分之一的儿童,而2020年这一比例为20%. 预计2至5岁和12至19岁儿童的增幅最大. 促成因素, such as insufficient physical activity and a poor diet, 预计在未来30年仍将占所有儿童的60%.
Kazi说,在人口结构发生关键变化的时候,疾病发病率正在上升.
“婴儿潮时期出生的最后一批人将在2030年达到65岁,所以美国大约有五分之一的人将面临退休.S. will be over 65, outnumbering children for the first time in U.S. 历史,”他说. "Since cardiovascular risk increases with age, 人口老龄化增加了该国心血管疾病的总负担."
研究人员预计,美国的西班牙裔、亚裔和多种族人口将会增加.S. will more than double in the coming decades.
"By 2060, more than two-thirds of children will belong to underserved, disenfranchised 人口s, 哪些传统上有更高的心血管疾病发病率和风险因素,卡兹说.
According to the projections, 患心血管疾病的总人数增幅最大的将是西班牙裔成年人, with Asian adults also seeing a large increase. 预计黑人成年人患高血压的比例最高, 糖尿病和肥胖, as well as the highest rates of inadequate sleep and poor diets. 预计亚洲成年人身体活动不足的比例最高, with rates also high among Asian and Hispanic children.
Hispanic children are projected to have the highest obesity rates, along with the greatest projected growth in obesity, high blood pressure and diabetes. 黑人儿童患高血压和糖尿病的总体比例预计最高.
“我们发现心血管疾病和危险因素的患病率大幅上升, and in the number of people with these conditions, among people from racially and ethnically diverse backgrounds," Dr. 凯伦E. Joynt Maddox, chair of the writing committee, said in the release. 她是圣路易斯市华盛顿大学医学院的医学副教授. 路易. While some of the increase is due to U.S. 人口结构的变化, 心血管疾病和风险因素方面的许多不平等仍然归因于系统性种族主义, as well as socioeconomic factors and access to care,她说.
The researchers did find some positive trends. 整体, 运动量不足的人的比例预计会下降, 从33.5% to 24.占人口的2%. And smoking rates are expected to drop by nearly half, from 15.8% to 8.4%的人口.
写作委员会指出,积极减少心血管危险因素的方法可能会改变这些预测. Any reductions in disease could help lower costs, Kazi said.
"We can bend the cost curve on cardiovascular disease, 但这需要对心血管疾病的预防和治疗进行战略性投资,他说. "It will take all of us working together to make this happen."